I wish they hadn't switched all the pre-coverage to NBC Sports channel because I do not get that channel. No one I knows does. So, I've only gotten to watch about two hours of coverage. I love it. I am rolling around in horse feelings and it is wonderful.

With 19 horses running in the Kentucky Derby it's hard to pick a winner. Add in the sloppy track and it's next to impossible. I used to rely on Gary Stevens to be reasonable as a former jockey, but the 50 year old is actually one of the big stories this year. After seven years in retirement he got back onto the track and now he has a mount for the Derby. I am very happy for him, but I was really worried about NBC coverage because they know nothing. So bless you Jerry Bailey for signing up to do Stevens job. At least there's someone who used to run actual races and doesn't just pay attention 5 weekends out of the year. So the word of wisdom from Jerry Bailey is Orb. He also liked Itsmyluckyday and Revolutionary.

Revolutionary is a good bet because he's both bred for sloppy and has been successful on sloppy tracks. So he's in my top five.

The hat will not be making an appearance this year. I think I'll just give a list of who my likely finishers are. I'll also name drop some favorites.

Revolutionary looks likely. It's stopped raining at Churchill judging from the video footage, but the track is not going to dry out in the next 30 minutes. He's not only good on the mud, but he's inside and has Calvin Borel as a jockey. So we'll see what happens.

I think my other top choices would be Orb or Verrazano. I think they're likely to be up there. They're in the middle of the field Verrazano more than Orb so that might be tricky, but maybe if they stay outside that would be good. One of the nice NBC announcers walked out on the track from the inside to the outside and it's good surface in maybe the 1-2 hole, but 3-6 is a deep wet mess. I would not want to be a mid pack runner in this race. Those horses are going to come out filthy. Filthy. Plus it means you have to take into account how the mid-field come from behinders are going to react to getting hit with all that mud. Dirt they're used to, but mud is interesting.

Mylute is an interesting horse. I wish Rosie Napravnik the best of luck. She won a race earlier today and it was a good ride. Plus she literally just corrected Bob Costas on air for getting facts wrong about her and Mylute. She's doing a great interview!

Zenyatta's jockey Mike Smith won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday and he's riding one of Pletcher's horses Palace Malice and so that's something to take into consideration. Pletcher has 5 horses in this Derby so we'll see how he finishes. That trainer has the worst luck in this race.

Also 40 years since Secretariat. I'd give anything to see a horse like him sweep the crown. Love him.


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