I wish they hadn't switched all the pre-coverage to NBC Sports channel because I do not get that channel. No one I knows does. So, I've only gotten to watch about two hours of coverage. I love it. I am rolling around in horse feelings and it is wonderful.

With 19 horses running in the Kentucky Derby it's hard to pick a winner. Add in the sloppy track and it's next to impossible. I used to rely on Gary Stevens to be reasonable as a former jockey, but the 50 year old is actually one of the big stories this year. After seven years in retirement he got back onto the track and now he has a mount for the Derby. I am very happy for him, but I was really worried about NBC coverage because they know nothing. So bless you Jerry Bailey for signing up to do Stevens job. At least there's someone who used to run actual races and doesn't just pay attention 5 weekends out of the year. So the word of wisdom from Jerry Bailey is Orb. He also liked Itsmyluckyday and Revolutionary.

Revolutionary is a good bet because he's both bred for sloppy and has been successful on sloppy tracks. So he's in my top five.

The hat will not be making an appearance this year. I think I'll just give a list of who my likely finishers are. I'll also name drop some favorites.

Revolutionary looks likely. It's stopped raining at Churchill judging from the video footage, but the track is not going to dry out in the next 30 minutes. He's not only good on the mud, but he's inside and has Calvin Borel as a jockey. So we'll see what happens.

I think my other top choices would be Orb or Verrazano. I think they're likely to be up there. They're in the middle of the field Verrazano more than Orb so that might be tricky, but maybe if they stay outside that would be good. One of the nice NBC announcers walked out on the track from the inside to the outside and it's good surface in maybe the 1-2 hole, but 3-6 is a deep wet mess. I would not want to be a mid pack runner in this race. Those horses are going to come out filthy. Filthy. Plus it means you have to take into account how the mid-field come from behinders are going to react to getting hit with all that mud. Dirt they're used to, but mud is interesting.

Mylute is an interesting horse. I wish Rosie Napravnik the best of luck. She won a race earlier today and it was a good ride. Plus she literally just corrected Bob Costas on air for getting facts wrong about her and Mylute. She's doing a great interview!

Zenyatta's jockey Mike Smith won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday and he's riding one of Pletcher's horses Palace Malice and so that's something to take into consideration. Pletcher has 5 horses in this Derby so we'll see how he finishes. That trainer has the worst luck in this race.

Also 40 years since Secretariat. I'd give anything to see a horse like him sweep the crown. Love him.
Well, Super Saver may have won the Derby, but Lookin at Lucky came through for me in the Preakness. Neither of them is running in the Belmont. Another year without a Triple Crown winner.

The lack of posting is due to my lack of internet which is still going strong. Let me tell you how much I do not recommend doing online school without internet, working full time, and moving all at the same time. I am so exhausted I don't really know how to function anymore.

So I'll be back at some point in the future when I can get internet from my couch again.

Also I heart Supernatural so much. I didn't get to watch season five at all-but am spoiled. I am watching season 4. I want season 3. I want all the seasons. I also want epic length pdf fic to save to my computer. Because life without the internet is hard.
Soooo....wow, this is an interesting Derby field. There a full 20 horses, and only three of them are at single digit odds. Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, and Sidney's Candy. Plus the favorite Lookin at Lucky has the longest odds since 2002. On the other hand the longest odds on the board at 36-1 or something. This is very rare for a Derby. What the commentators are saying is that it's because of Mine That Bird and now this years bettors are spreading money are around. The filly is staying at 10-1 ish.

The track itself is just slop. They thought it might dry out, but I don't think it's going to since it was just raining. I think it's going to be an interesting race. They have just started the walk over so I'm really excited. I do love race day a lot. I can't wait to see this race. It's a shame about the mud though because the horses will get all dirty and you'll miss the gloss on their coats. Devil May Care is really a striking filly. I don't think she has much of a chance though. Come to find out she throws temper tantrums and likes to race from side to side. Straight line, much more effective.

As for the hat draw...I'm without a newspaper this year. It's tragic. I don't know the breeding on any of these horses. I just feel unprepared from a breeding standpoint. However, I found the info I needed to do the draw below. The hat would be making you money if these horses can in.

I think the slop does ruin Sidney's Candy's changes. Sad. And with what I know about Devil May Care I am just concerned. I think my top three picks of yesterday are unlikely.

Per the hat...
1. Awesome Act 2. Stately Victor 3. Devil May Care 4. Jackson Bend 5. Line of David 6. Backtalk
7. Sidney's Candy 8. Lookin at Lucky 9. Make Music for Me 10. Icebox 11. Homeboy Chris 12. Discretely Mine 13. Conveyance 14. American Lion 15. Mission Impazible 16. Paddy O'Prado
17. Noble's Promise 18. Dublin 19. Deans Kitten 20. Super Saver

For the record I'm still going with Lookin at Lucky.
I know my coverage has not been as intense this year, BUT I did not forget that the Kentucky Derby, and I have been following the news. So far, so good.

My top three picks for winning by choice are
1. Lookin at Lucky (come on he's a Baffert horse)
2. Sidney's Candy
3. Devil May Care (go ladies!)

My top three from a more realistic outlook
1. Sidney's Candy
2. Ice Box
3. Lookin at Lucy

I of course want to go with my West coast horses. Spending time at Santa Anita is fun. I really have been enjoying my visits there.

In other news Rachel Alexandra ran her second race of the season and lost again. I'm worried this means they may retire her. Of course she only lost by like a neck or something. I'm going to be watching the race replay later tonight. She's such a pretty mare. I don't want her to retire, but I want to know what's going on. She just dominated last year so I feel like this is really strange. Nothing about her rider or trainer changed. I guess we'll see what happens.

Blind hat draw and order of finish tomorrow.
ninj: (Aya)
( May. 2nd, 2009 10:08 am)
Okay everyone. We knew it was coming. The post on the Kentucky Derby is bellow. For now what the hat says and what I want the order of finish to be. My actual belief concerning the finish should come later this afternoon. The favorite I Want Revenge was scratched this morning due to heat in his right front hoof. So you will be seeing a 19 horse field.

Read more... )
ninj: (Hyde)
( Apr. 29th, 2009 10:14 pm)
Really good article about the cost of horse racing and who might suffer for some of its safetly concerns. Warning: This article is graphic. Graphic descriptions of pain and suffering by humans and animals alike.


http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=4104868

By the way on a funny note the Jenny Craig Trust has a horse in the Kentucky Derby. His name? Chocolate Candy. No lie.
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